Wile E Coyote, the animation character, runs off the edge of the cliff. For a second, before he realises there isn’t any more ground beneath him, his legs keep pumping off. That may be where western societies are now.
Thisyear’slockdownshave prompted the largest economic declines in memory. But most Europeans specifically still don’t realise that they are falling off that a cliff. That is because their authorities have effec- tively nationalised countless jobs from subsidising wages. That could be the moment when Coyote looks down, yellowish eyes bulging, and finds that the mile-deep canyon gaping below. What occurs to American and European political systems then?
The non-profit More in Common, which studies political attitudes in the two regions, gave me an advance look at its report The New Normal? , according to interviews with 14,000 people across seven nations. There’s good news here for Germany and the Netherlands, in which the pandemic has fostered trust in authorities and national pride, and for Britons, drawn together post-Brexit by Covid-19. However, Italians fear political instability, France has a vacancy for an antisystem pioneer who can vocalise the widespread anger and Poland has become even more split. The US is the one nation fully aware that it’s falling off the cliff.
Surely for many Europeans, Covid-19 remains a rather distant tragedy. The proportion saying they know anyone who died of the disease ranges from5 per cent in Germany and Poland to 18 per cent in Italy. In no European country does more than 1 person in 3 — in Germany, one in eight — understand somebody who lost a project to the pandemic. By contrast, in the US, where jobs were not shielded, 45 percent know someone left jobless. Everywhere, Covid-19 has implanted political time-bombs. Mental wellbeing and trust in other people have worsened in all states, with the biggest net declines in the US. Poland scores worst in Europe in those 2 groups: the nation had a relatively mild case of coronavirus however its inherent polarisation has metastasised, especially after PiS, the populist ruling party, attempted to hold elections in that spring’s lockdown. Only 35 per cent of Poles state confidence in”our present government’s ability to handle the
Challenges ahead”.
The French arejust as antigovernment.Astunning 78 percent of them believe that”to place our nation in order, we are in need of a strong leader willing to break the rules”. (A still hefty 71 percent of Italians and 55 per cent of Germans say the same.) But a green, anti-system, leftwing”French Trump” would face one enormous challenge: persuading France’s large group of politically disengaged to start voting together with the”identitarians”. Neither the present far-right pioneer Marine Le Pen nor her father ever managed that. With Italian income percapita nowprobablylowerthan in 2004, many are enticed to bin their method. Polls show almost 40 percent backing the far right. The one bright light is that 80 percent of Italians believe their compatriots”have demonstrated unprecedented
‘Covid-19 has implanted political time-bombs. Mental health and trust in other people have worsened in most states’
Degrees of solidarity in this emergency”. Those locked-down neighbourhoods singing from balconies were telling us all something.
Most Britons have hankered for the sense of national togetherness of 1940. Covid-19, killing more people in the UK compared to German Blitz did, has revivedthatfeeling. Britons arethe predominate in the study likely to agree with statements of solidarity:”The pandemic has shown me that many people in our nation careabouteach other”,”I believe that it is my duty as a taxpayer to trace social distancing and other rules” and”I have expressed thanks to healthcare or essential employees”. It’s not that Britons are uniting behind the government: they are the Europeans most likely to put blame on”national government leaders”. However, the coronavirus is healing the divides Brexit.
By contrast, the US, fractured prior to the pan- demic, seems to be disintegrating. Americans score worst in the analysis for climbing disappointment in their nation, decrease in trust in national government, increased branch and forecasts of political instability. These figures are particularly distressing giventhat Americans usedtofeaturein polls as optimists. If they are now more pessimistic than the French, that’s terrifying.
As after the 2008 financial crisis, it may take years to discover what is at the bottom of each nation’s political canyon. However, this study suggests a lurch leftwards. Asked whom authorities”cares a lot about”, respondents in many countries place”wealthy people” and”large company owners”top.Close into 90 percenteverywherewant businesses to”stop using overseas tax havens”, to”devote to altering jobs back from abroad” and to”guarantee fair wages for many employees”. Huge majorities (especially in Europe) back a Green New Deal. The beneficiaries of the political backlash may look more like Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez compared to Donald Trump.